The Biden administration is closely watching a diplomatic dispute between Canada and India, with growing concerns that it could disrupt the United States’ strategic approach to the Indo-Pacific region, designed to counter China’s influence. While publicly, the US administration has maintained that the dispute between Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Indian government is a matter between the two countries, behind the scenes, there are growing worries and implications for US foreign policy priorities.
Trudeau’s allegations that the Indian government may have been involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist near Vancouver have strained relations between Canada and India. While US officials have urged India to cooperate in the investigation, India has denied the allegations. Privately, some US officials believe Trudeau’s claims are credible, raising concerns that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may be using tactics to silence opposition figures on foreign soil, akin to tactics employed by Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea.
However, the bigger concern is how this dispute could impact one of the Biden administration’s key foreign policy priorities—the Indo-Pacific strategy, which aims to counter China’s growing assertiveness in the region. Both Canada and India play crucial roles in the US-led efforts to present a united and democratic front against China. Canada, as a Pacific country and a key NATO ally, shares the longest undefended border in the world with the United States.
The US administration has been focused on dealing with China as a competitor and potential international threat, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. To strengthen its position, the US created a leaders group known as the “Quad,” consisting of Australia, Japan, India, and the United States. President Joe Biden has emphasized the importance of the Quad in countering Chinese influence in the region.
The worst-case scenario envisioned by US policymakers is that the Canada-India dispute escalates in a manner similar to the 2018 row between Britain and Russia over the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in England. If Canada were to ask the US to expel a large number of Indian diplomats, the US would likely have little choice but to comply, potentially leading to a rupture in US-Indian relations and potential consequences for the Quad.
While the situation has not yet escalated to that point, there is concern in Washington about the potential consequences. The allegation of Indian involvement in the murder was supported by intelligence from the “Five Eyes” grouping of Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and the US.
Despite efforts by Trudeau to calm the diplomatic clash, tensions persist, with India recently requesting Canada to remove a significant number of its diplomats from the country. The situation remains fluid, and US officials continue to monitor it closely for any potential impacts on their Indo-Pacific strategy.
Danny Russel, a former senior diplomat in President Barack Obama’s administration and vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, noted, “I’m not saying we’re at the danger zone yet. But it is a situation I would certainly be watching.”
